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NSW records first drop in hospitalisations since mid-December

Catie McLeodNCA NewsWire
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - NewsWire Photos, JANUARY 19 2022: NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet addresses the media at the 2022 Australia Day Address at The Independent Theatre North Sydney. NCA NewsWire /Gaye Gerard
Camera IconSYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - NewsWire Photos, JANUARY 19 2022: NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet addresses the media at the 2022 Australia Day Address at The Independent Theatre North Sydney. NCA NewsWire /Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia

NSW has recorded a drop in Covid-related hospitalisations for the first time since mid-December, with public health experts saying the outbreak is likely to have peaked.

There are 2781 people in the state’s hospitals with coronavirus, with 212 of those in intensive care, down from 2863 and 217 respectively on Wednesday.

There were 82 fewer people in hospital on Thursday than the day before, while ICU presentations fell by five.

Hospitalisations had risen each day since December 18, when there were 206 people in hospital with the virus and the Omicron wave was taking hold.

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Professor Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, believes NSW’s outbreak has already peaked and will continue its “bumpy” decline.

He said cases may increase again when children go back to school from the end of this month.

“Case numbers will fluctuate and so do hospital numbers. There’s a good chance the trend now will be downwards,” he told NCA NewsWire.

“What we’re seeing not just in NSW but other states as well is there was a very sharp rise in cases before the peak was reached, but it’s coming down very slowly and very bumpily. We’ll keep seeing that.”

Professor Esterman said the dip in hospitalisations was to be expected as the number of Covid hospital patients usually trailed daily infections by about a week.

“I normally judge it by the Reff. It dropped below 1 for the first time on January 13 and the timing is perfect,” he said.

The Reff, effective reproduction number, of an outbreak refers to how many people one infected person will spread the virus to.

When the Reff drops below one, each positive case is passing it on to less than one other person.

University of Sydney infectious diseases expert Professor Robert Booy said NSW’s drop in hospital admissions suggested good progress.

“It suggests the impression we got from Africa and Europe is correct - (Omicron) is a very fast onset and fast disappearing virus,” he said.

“The case numbers are less reliable than hospitalisations and hospitalisations going down is encouraging. It’s going down two weeks early.”

Premier Dominic Perrottet and health authorities have said their modelling forecasts the outbreak to peak in the third or fourth week of this month before a dropping off in February.

NSW recorded 30,825 new Covid cases and the deaths of 25 people with the virus on Thursday.

Health officials said 13,178 of the new infections were detected on rapid antigen tests and 17,647 were found through PCR testing.

As of Thursday, 95.3 per cent of people in NSW aged over 16 have had one dose of a Covid vaccine, 93.8 per cent have had two and 29 per cent have received a booster.

Dr Daniel Nour - Australia Day Address
Camera IconNSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has acknowledged that healthcare workers are under pressure. NCA NewsWire/Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia

NSW hospitals and the people who work in them have been under immense pressure during the Omicron wave, which boiled over during a protest at Westmead Hospital on Wednesday.

About 60 distressed ICU nurses rallied outside the major tertiary hospital in western Sydney to call for change and to speak out about the “dangerous and chaotic” condition the wards have fallen into.

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said he had been talking with union representatives from the NSW Nurses and Midwives Association.

“I have been listening to their concerns and we are certainly considering some of the operational challenges they have inside, and certainly they have been compounded by the pandemic,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

Westmead Rally
Camera IconICU nurses protested at Westmead Hospital on Wednesday. John Feder/The Australian. Credit: News Corp Australia

Mr Perrottet has repeatedly insisted the healthcare system is coping even if it is under strain.

Asked about medical workers’ concerns on Thursday, Mr Perrottet said hospitals had enough space but acknowledged their staff were under pressure.

“Because many of our staff are obviously furloughed … and that’s putting increasing pressure on the system,” he told Sunrise on Thursday.

“When I look at the hospitalisations, ICU capacity, that’s going quite well. It’s just the pressure on our nurses and our doctors that’s putting the system under pressure.”

It’s a similar story in Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews has called the strain on his state’s health system “unavoidable”.

Victoria recorded 21,966 new Covid cases and 15 deaths on Thursday.

There are 1206 people in Victorian hospitals, with 122 in intensive care, including 40 on a ventilator.

Originally published as NSW records first drop in hospitalisations since mid-December

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