Facing election loss, Victorian Deputy Premier Ben Carroll challenges Premier Jacinta Allan

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan was told in writing in 2023 that the state’s huge infrastructure projects were being infiltrated by motorcycle gangs and criminals associated with the CFMEU, The Age newspaper reported on the same day her deputy said he would stand against her for the Labor Party leadership.

Marked “cabinet in confidence”, the document warned the then-transport minister that the “industrial relations environment” on government projects was “highly challenging” a year before corruption allegations appeared in the media, according to an article published by the paper at 4.14pm.

Her spokesperson told the paper Ms Allan was “not aware of this brief” and “to say otherwise is a lie”.

But the timing of the leak was another blow for the premier, who earlier in the day was told by party factional leaders that she had lost the support of Labor MPs and should resign. She told the delegation of right and left-wing MPs that the six ministers among them should resign instead.

In a letter to party headquarters, which was given to media outlets, she not only told Victoria’s state Labor secretary to prepare for a vote on her job — an election that has not yet been called — but declared she will run.

“Dear Steve,” she wrote to state secretary Steve Staikos Monday morning, “I refer to media speculation regarding the leadership of the State Parliamentary Labor Party.

“I also wish to formally notify you of my intention to be a candidate for the leadership of the State Parliamentary Labor Party, in the event that an election is required.”

After seeing Ms Allan, the delegation visited Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and urged him to run. Despite previously ruling out a challenge, Mr Carroll said it was “clear” Ms Allan had lost the support of most Labor MPs and he intended to stand for leader ahead of Victoria’s State election in late November.

“This decision is not easy, but the stakes at the upcoming election are simply too high,” he wrote on X. “The prospect of a Liberal-One Nation Government that will cut schools, health and front line services is simply too high a risk to ignore.”

Members’ vote

There was no confirmation on when the vote would be held, although a regular meeting of Labor MPs on Tuesday is a possibility.

Ms Allan trails her Liberal counterpart by about 20 percentage points in popularity polls, the result of years of headlines on the state’s corruption problems, Budget blowouts and poor economic performance.

Many Labor MPs will lose their seats at the election scheduled for November unless Victorians change their minds, according to polls, which show voters almost evenly split between the Labor Party, the Coalition and One Nation. After preferences are allocated, the Coalition leads Labor by 52 to 48 per cent, according to a Newspoll published in The Australian.

SportsBet has the odds of a Labor victory at 3-1. The Coalition’s odds are 1.44-to-1.

Mr Carroll needs the support of 16 MPs, including himself, to stand for leader. A member of the minority right-wing faction, he is attracting significant support from Ms Allan’s Socialist Left faction, one party source said, driven by negative feedback from voters as MPs doorknock their electorates.

If Ms Allan is unable to secure 15 extra votes, she will not be allowed to run for her own job. Mr Carroll will win by default. If both are allowed to stand, party members will vote for their state leader for the first time. Their votes would have equal weighting with state Labor MPs.

Organised Crime

While the factions struggled for power, government continued.

A Cabinet meeting began at 11.15am to approve a new agency within the Victorian police force to pursue organised crime, according to the Victorian media. The Organised Crime Agency, which has been allocated a $170 million budget, is a response to reports of CFMEU-linked corruption within the state’s infrastructure projects known as the Big Build.

While the agency will be allocated Task Force Hawk, which is investigating the construction industry, it will also take responsibility for operations pursuing youth and motorcycle gangs, tobacco smugglers and nightclub protection rackets.

“This new, highly specialised unit will hunt down hidden wealth, dismantle networks and cut off the money that fuels organised crime”, the government said.

Ms Allan has resisted huge media pressure to appoint a royal commission to investigate the reports, saying it would slow down the fight to clean up the industry.

In Cabinet, Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams, Minister for Police Anthony Carbines and Minister for Ports and Freight Melissa Horne advocated for a royal commission, according to Age journalist Chip Le Grand. He wrote that it was the first time the royal commission option has been openly raised within cabinet.

Grim-faced ministers left the meeting without talking to journalists. Ms Allan cancelled a press conference that had been scheduled to announce the new agency, which was revealed in a press release.

Seeking an early election

Ms Allan’s refusal to have a public inquiry is an example of her leadership style. In her two years and 303 days leading the state, Ms Allan has veered between pragmatism and obstinacy.

She hasn’t hesitated to throw money at voters when it is politically expedient. But when it comes to the CFMEU, one of the defining problems of her government, she has been reluctant to bow to public pressure.

The polls suggest a hung parliament is a distinct possibility. But One Nation has no leader in Victoria, no candidates and no policies. The Liberal Party has been beset by internal conflict for years.

The opposition said it would move a no-confidence motion in the government in Tuesday and invited Labor MPs to vote for it. If the motion is passed, it would bring down the government and could lead to an early election, which the opposition wants.

“Changing the leader will not change the problems that Victorians face,” shadow treasurer James Newbury told reporters. “Victorians deserve a say. They don’t need a second unelected premier.”